Trump's CNN poll doesn't tell the whole midterm story – Seattle Red
JASON RANTZ OPINION
May 13, 2026, 7:45 AM
President Donald Trump speaks at the White House as new CNN polling shows his economic approval rating has fallen to 30 percent, a career low, ahead of the November midterm elections. Despite the numbers, Democrats hold only a three-point generic ballot advantage and have yet to close the deal with independent voters. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
BY
Talk Show Host and Columnist at Seattle Red
A new CNN/SSRS poll showing President Donald Trump’s approval on the economy at a career low of 30 percent is not encouraging news for Republicans heading into the November midterms. But if Democrats think these numbers point to a blue wave, they may want to read more carefully.
The survey, conducted April 30 through May 4 among 1,499 U.S. adults, found that 77 percent of Americans (including a majority of Republicans) say Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their own communities. Roughly two-thirds say his policies have worsened economic conditions nationally. On inflation, only 26 percent approved of his handling of rising prices. On gas prices, just 21 percent. Those numbers are bad across the board.
Whether bad numbers for Trump automatically produce a meaningful opening for Democrats is a separate question. Six months out from November, the answer is more complicated than the headlines suggest.
On every economic issue tested in the CNN poll (cost of living, helping the middle class, inflation), Democrats hold a trust advantage over Republicans. The problem is the third column. More than 30 percent of Americans, including at least half of political independents, said they trust neither party to handle those same issues. That is not a Democratic groundswell, but a voter base that has tuned out both sides.
It’s not shocking that the party in power is blamed for what’s happening, especially since the media is dominated by voices on the left that will amplify every Democrats’ talking point. But what is shocking? Democrats are performing poorly.
The generic congressional ballot in the same poll sits at 45 percent Democrat to 42 percent Republican. A three-point margin reflects a slight advantage, not a wave. Consistent CNN polling throughout this cycle has given Democrats a similar edge, and it has actually been going down. Economic approval numbers have bounced in both directions rather than tracking steadily downward for Republicans. Democrats are holding a lead that refuses to grow, in an economic environment that should be pushing independents firmly into the blue column. The fact that it hasn’t is the story the poll doesn’t tell.
As a prior Seattle Red report showed when Trump’s December polling showed movement, the floor for Republican support on economic issues has remained more stable than headlines about approval lows tend to imply. The ceiling for Democrats has proven similarly stubborn.
Democrats entered 2026 expecting to flip three House seats to retake the majority. That number is no longer the target. Following the Virginia Supreme Court’s decision striking down a Democratic-drawn map that would have handed the party up to ten of Virginia’s eleven congressional seats, and the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling restricting racial gerrymandering protections under the Voting Rights Act, Republicans have reshaped the structural battlefield ahead of November.
The redistricting wave has generated roughly 14 House seats Republicans believe they can win, compared to six pickups Democrats stand to gain (all of them in California). That is an eight-seat structural GOP advantage before a single vote is cast. A new Cook Political Report shows Republicans have the lead in likely pick-ups, though by only one seat with 18 toss-ups. That’s still more favorable than anyone would have guessed.
Carrie Dann, managing editor of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, told NBC News after the Virginia ruling: “Republicans have undoubtedly strengthened their structural advantage and could now theoretically net as many as 13 seats from redistricting.
Still, she does note it will still be an uphill battle for Republicans.
Locally, the RNC has already identified Washington State’s 3rd Congressional District as a prime pickup opportunity, targeting Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in a seat that has historically leaned Republican and currently rates as a toss-up.
American political history has one reliable rule: the president’s party loses seats in midterms. Over the past 90 years, that average loss tops 30 seats. If 2026 follows that pattern, Republican redistricting gains get erased and Democrats take the gavel.
Thin majorities change the math. The last directly comparable cycle was 2022, when Biden was deeply unpopular and Democrats held a narrow majority. They lost nine seats. Republicans today are defending roughly the same margin; if they hold losses to single digits while redistricting requires Democrats to flip more than ten seats rather than three, what gets reported as a midterm defeat may function as a structural hold for the GOP.
Trump’s approval numbers reflect a second term genuinely weighed down by cost-of-living concerns. They do not reflect a Democratic Party that has given voters a compelling reason to hand them power. Indeed, their only messaging is “Orange man bad!” Republicans enter the fall in a weaker national position than they’d like and a stronger structural position than the polling data alone would suggest.
Listen to The Jason Rantz Show on weekday afternoons from 3 p.m. – 7 p.m. on Seattle Red on 770 AM (HD Radio 97.3 FM HD-Channel 3). Subscribe to the podcast here. Follow Jason Rantz on X, Instagram, YouTube, and Facebook.
Follow @https://twitter.com/jasonrantz
Jason Rantz
Trump hits a career-low 30% on the economy in a new CNN poll, but weak Democratic trust numbers and a redistricting rout complicate the midterm picture for both parties.
19 hours ago
Jason Rantz
Pramila Jayapal called Seattle housing a ‘policy failure.’ She’s right. Democrats have run this city for decades and they own every bit of the crisis.
21 hours ago
Jason Rantz
Pramila Jayapal’s re-election launch email warned donors a Jewish group is hiring in Seattle. This is antisemitism with a PayPal button attached.
3 days ago
Jason Rantz
Pro-Hamas student groups at UW are trying to shut down a Chloe Cole event and ban TPUSA from campus while calling the conservative group a “Nazi hate group.”
3 days ago
Jason Rantz
Idaho surged past 2 million residents as Washington’s $9.4B tax hike fuels an exodus east. Lake Stevens Mayor Aaron Gailey is among those leaving for good.
3 days ago
Jason Rantz
The UW Huskies women’s soccer team lost a scrimmage to an under-14 boys squad. Jason Rantz on what that means for Washington’s IL26-638 ballot initiative.
6 days ago
