Yes, America hates Trump: overview of three recent polls. – Daily Kos
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Four major polls—the Economist/YouGov survey conducted May 9–11, a companion YouGov crosstabs poll from the same period, the Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll from late April, and a brand-new CNN/SSRS poll released just this morning—paint a remarkably consistent picture of a president whose standing with the American public has eroded badly, and whose party faces serious headwinds heading into November.
The Headline Numbers
Trump’s overall approval stands at 37% in the Post/ABC/Ipsos poll, while his disapproval has reached 62%—the highest of his two terms in office. The Economist/YouGov poll is nearly identical: 36% approve, 58% disapprove, with a brutal 49% strongly disapproving. FiftyPlusOne puts Trump’s approval at just 36.8% and his disapproval at 59.7% as of May 12—a net negative of 23 points.
The Economy: His Former Stronghold Is Collapsing
This is where it gets really bad for the White House. The new CNN/SSRS poll, conducted April 30–May 4 among 1,499 U.S. adults, finds that 77% of Americans—including a majority of Republicans—say Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their own community. Roughly two-thirds say his policies have worsened economic conditions in the country. And his approval rating on the economy stands at just 30%, a career low.
The economy was the centerpiece of Trump’s 2024 comeback. His approval on handling inflation has dropped to just 27%, down from 44% one year ago. The share of Republicans who strongly approve of his job performance has dropped to 43%, from 52% in January. His economic approval is down 8 points overall since January and a larger 14 points among Republicans.
Trump’s approval on economic issues has fallen since he launched the Iran war in late February. In the YouGov poll, 74% of Americans describe the economy as “fair” or “poor,” and 59% say the economy is getting worse.
The Iran War Is Dragging Him Down
The Post/ABC/Ipsos poll found only 33% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the Iran war. The YouGov poll found just 30% support the war outright, with 55% opposed. When asked how long it will last, a majority say more than a month but less than a year — hardly a public raring for a prolonged conflict.
Favorability: The Personal Toll
The YouGov numbers on personal favorability are stark. When asked to choose words describing Trump, respondents reached for “dangerous” (54%), “corrupt” (51%), “cruel” (46%), “racist” (45%), and “out-of-touch” (47%) far more than positive descriptors. Only 22% called him “honest” and just 18% said “steady.” A majority — 52% — say Trump is a threat to democracy, and 51% say he is too old to be president.
The Independent Collapse
The most politically consequential number across all these polls: Trump’s approval among Republican-leaning independents has reached a new low of 56%, and his approval rating stands at just 25% among independents overall. You simply cannot hold a House majority when you’re losing independents by that margin.
The Midterm Outlook
The CNN/SSRS poll finds registered voters split with 45% supporting a Democratic candidate for Congress versus 42% a Republican, with voters not sold on either party’s economic message tending to prefer Democrats on the generic ballot. The Post/ABC/Ipsos poll gives Democrats a 5-point advantage in House elections, up from a 2-point lead in February. The YouGov poll shows Democrats up 37%–34% on the generic congressional ballot.
Democratic enthusiasm is the other major factor. In the YouGov data, 78% of Harris 2024 voters say they’re “very motivated” to vote in November, compared to 67% of Trump voters. 55% of Americans say the economy and cost of living is the most important issue facing the country — more than double the share choosing any other single issue. That’s a Democratic issue right now, not a Republican one.
The president’s weak approval ratings put the Republicans’ slender House majority in grave danger and now threaten their Senate majority as well.
It astounds me that anyone is still supporting the bootlicking, do-nothing Republicans in Congress. But they are. It’s on Democrats to tie each and every one to Trump and then to paint a very different picture of what the economy could be under Democratic governance. The numbers are on our side—now the party needs to find a way to convince enough voters that, when it comes to the economy, the Democrats have been and will always be the adults in the room. If they can do that, the midterms are looking to be a monster Blue victory.
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