Trump's approval holds back Republicans – Decision Desk HQ | Substack
On Saturday night, check out our livestream coverage of Louisiana’s primary election, starting at 9 p.m. Eastern. (Watch on YouTube, X, or here on Substack)
In recent days, Republicans have received a spate of positive redistricting news that has improved their chances of keeping control of the U.S. House of Representatives. However, they remain underdogs in the House race — and could even lose the Senate — because the midterm electoral environment still looks quite bearish for them.
A big part of that is President Donald Trump’s approval rating, which now sits at its lowest point during his second term. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Trump’s approval is about 40%, while his disapproval rating is 57%. This marks about two straight months in which the president’s approval has hovered around 40%. The president’s party almost always loses at least some ground in midterms, and Trump’s -17 net approval rating is not good for the GOP’s hopes of limiting potential defeats.
For the president, a major problem is that the public largely disapproves of his handling of every major issue — some quite overwhelmingly. In a recent CNN/SSRS poll, just 30% of adults approved of how Trump was handling the economy, with even lower scores for inflation and gas prices. Not coincidentally, a majority (55%) in the poll named the economy and cost of living as the most important issue facing the country.
How people view Trump’s handling of the economy is striking compared to how they rated him during his first term. In CNN/SSRS polling, Trump’s lowest mark on the economy came in December 2017, when 44% approved and 49% disapproved. But in the latest poll, his economic handling sits at 30% approve, 70% disapprove.
Trump’s best issue remains immigration, but even there, only 41% approve of how he’s handling it in CNN/SSRS’s polling. By comparison, 51% approved of how Trump dealt with immigration at the start of his second term.
Trump won in 2024 thanks largely to voters viewing him as a better choice on economic and immigration matters. But he’s lost significant ground on both issues, which could be a problem for Republicans come November.
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In a similar vein to Trump’s approval situation, polling for the national House electoral picture also doesn’t look great for Republicans. In Decision Desk HQ’s generic ballot average, Democrats lead by 6 points, 46%-40%. The Democrats’ advantage is on the larger end of the 4-6 point range of leads they have mostly held since November.
Americans also remain dour about the direction the country is moving in. In Decision Desk HQ’s right track/wrong track average, about 60% think the country is on the wrong track, compared with 33% who say it’s on the right track.
The vote for Louisiana’s three-way Republican primary for U.S. Senate is this Saturday! Make sure to check out our livestream coverage of this election starting at around 9 p.m. Eastern (when polls close).
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In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Rep. Julia Letlow leads with 34%, while state Treasurer John Fleming sits in second with 25%. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy is now in third with 21%. While Letlow’s numbers have improved just ahead of the primary, it looks unlikely that any one candidate will win a majority to avoid a runoff. As such, the main primary drama may be whether Letlow will face Fleming or Cassidy.
Alabamans go to the polls this Tuesday. And in Decision Desk HQ’s polling average of Alabama’s GOP primary for Senate, Rep. Barry Moore holds only a small edge. The congressman sits at 25%, ahead of former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson’s 20% and state Attorney General Steve Marshall’s 16%. However, like many states in the South, Alabama requires an outright majority to win a primary, so this race could go to a June 16 runoff.
Georgia also holds its primaries on Tuesday. Peach State Republicans appear likely to send the GOP primary for governor to a runoff. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, healthcare executive Rick Jackson leads Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burton Jones by only about 4 points, 29%-25%. Two other statewide officials are also running: Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (14%) and Attorney General Chris Carr (7%).
In Georgia’s Senate race, meanwhile, Republicans will pick their nominee to take on Sen. Jon Ossoff, the only Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state that Trump carried in 2024. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Rep. Mike Collins leads the three-way GOP race with about 29%, while Rep. Buddy Carter and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley are polling neck and neck for second. Much like the Republicans’ gubernatorial primary, this contest looks almost certain to go to a runoff.
Kentucky also votes on Tuesday, and the latest surveys in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate show how President Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Andy Barr shook up the race.
Before Trump supported Barr, former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron had an edge in our polling average. But two polls conducted since Trump backed Barr on May 1 found the congressman ahead. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Barr now leads Cameron by about 10 points, 37%-27%. Businessman Nate Morris, who dropped out of the race after Trump’s endorsement (but remains on the ballot), is at 10%.
The Republican runoff in Texas’s U.S. Senate race is under two weeks away and still looks competitive. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a small lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, 47%-43%. Paxton looks to be the favorite, but such a small lead cannot be taken as proof positive that Paxton will win this contest.
California’s top-two primary for governor is three weeks away, and the polls increasingly suggest that the most likely outcome will be a matchup between Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former HHS secretary. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Hilton leads with 20%, while Becerra has risen to 19% However, Democrat Tom Steyer, the billionaire 2020 presidential candidate, is still very much in the race with 15%. And Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco continues to hover nearby with 12%
A month out from the vote, the state of play in South Carolina’s Republican primary for governor remains highly competitive. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette leads with about 22%, followed by South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson with 21%. Rep. Ralph Norman now sits in third with about 17%, while Rep. Nancy Mace is in fourth with 13%. As has been true for some time, only a Trump endorsement might give one candidate enough support to avoid a runoff here.
Sen. Susan Collins is the only GOP senator who hails from a state that Trump lost in 2024, but her successful track record in light-blue Maine suggests that she will be difficult for Democrats to oust in November. However, early polling does find Collins trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Graham Platner in the general election. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Platner leads Collins, 49%-42%. This seat is a must-win for Democrats if they want a shot at a Senate majority.
As a part of the Senate picture, Democrats also must win the contest in North Carolina. And early general election polling there is even better for Democrats than it is in Maine. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee, holds a sizable 10-point lead over former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley, 50%-40.
In Ohio’s race for governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy continues to lead Democrat Amy Acton, 48%-45%. However, we have not seen any new polling since both candidates officially became their party nominees in Ohio’s May 5 primary.
In Ohio’s special election for Senate, Republican Sen. Jon Husted holds a 49%-46% edge over former Sen. Sherrod Brown, his Democratic challenger. Husted was appointed to fill this seat after Vice President JD Vance resigned to take his current office. This is a critical race: If Democrats want to win back the Senate, they must flip at least two Senate seats in states that Trump carried by 10 or more points in 2024.
To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.
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