Brazil Shakes Off Trump Tariffs With Record Exports in 2025 – supplychainbrain.com
Brazilian exports surged to record levels in 2025, shrugging off months of punishing U.S. tariffs thanks to expanded shipments to China and other major trading partners.
Total exports reached $348.7 billion for the year, government data released January 6 showed, a 3.5% increase from 2024, and the highest figure in the historical series that dates to 1997.
The banner year came despite 50% tariffs on key goods, including major products such as beef and coffee, that U.S. President Donald Trump imposed in August in an effort to pressure Brazil into halting legal proceedings against Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing former leader who was sentenced to 27 years in prison earlier this year for plotting a coup after his 2022 election defeat.
Trump has since lifted the levies on most of Brazil’s biggest products, after mending ties with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who spent the saga doubling down on a push to diversify Brazilian trade into new markets.
For the full year from January through December 2025, compared with the same period a year earlier, agricultural output rose 7.1%, while the extractive industry contracted 0.7%. Manufacturing activity, meanwhile, expanded 3.8%.
China remained Brazil’s largest purchaser, with total exports up 6% from a year prior. Shipments to the U.S. dropped 6.6% from 2024. Oil stayed at the top of the list of Brazilian exports for the second year, accounting for 12.8% of shipments.
Trump’s trade tension with China also favored Brazil, as the Asian nation avoided purchases of U.S. soybeans and favored Brazil during most of the year. Sales out of the South American country remained strong even after a deal between Washington and Beijing was struck, with December shipments climbing 84% from the same period last year.
According to the Trade Ministry, exports in 2026 are projected to total between $340 billion and $380 billion, while the trade surplus is expected to range from $70 billion to $90 billion.
Lula’s Return
Brazil, an agricultural powerhouse, has seen exports surge since Lula returned to office in 2023, sparking memories of the commodities-fueled economic bonanza the nation experienced during his previous presidency two decades ago. That has helped propel an economy that continues to grow modestly despite pressure from high interest rates.
Negotiations between Brazil and the U.S. over a broader trade framework are ongoing, with Lula pushing for the full removal of Trump’s tariffs from goods still subject to the levies.
“Lula has a good relationship with Trump; they’ve had several meetings, and the talks have progressed,” Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said on January 6. “We can have a win-win situation, a very positive agenda. Not only from a tariff standpoint, but also on other issues, such as rare earths, big tech, and data centers.”
Brazil is now facing a new challenge from its top trading partner. In late December, China imposed quotas on foreign beef purchases to protect domestic farmers, a blow to the world’s largest producer of the product. The government has said it will soon begin negotiations with China, which accounts for nearly half of Brazilian beef exports.
Lula, meanwhile, has continued efforts to expand trade beyond the world’s two largest economies, including with fast-growing Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia and fellow BRICS partner, India. His goal of cementing a massive free trade deal between the European Union and Mercosur — a customs union founded by Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay — also finally appears within reach.
Italy is now set to reverse course and support the pact when EU ambassadors vote this week, a move that would allow the two sides to sign the deal, which has been in the works for more than 25 years, on January 12.
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