As the US midterms loom, the Republican choice is surrender—or lose – European Council on Foreign Relations
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A loyal voter base is allowing Trump to dominate the Republican Party and strengthen his control before the midterms. Now his sidelining of Congress is weakening the traditional checks on presidential power
Donald Trump is the least popular president of America’s modern era—but the most popular Republican in the party’s history. So long as he continues to have a loyal voter base that turns out for him, and the candidates he endorses, he will continue to bend politicians to his will. Such total domination is the source of his power.
The fall of Trump’s strongest Republican critic, congressman Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has recently tightened this stranglehold. Even as Trump loses popularity across the electorate, he continues to use the Republican primaries to shape the party in his image. Any primary, especially a midterm, is decided by a sliver of the electorate, with often fewer than a quarter of eligible voters turning out. This means that the voters who show up are the most committed. And Trump’s base is nothing if not committed.
Trump has found that he does not need to appeal to most Americans. Instead, he only needs to mobilise his small but highly motivated base toward his preferred candidates. His declining approval among the broader public is, for now, beside the point. Public appeal and primary electorate dominance are two different beasts, and the Republicans that Trump opposes will not even reach the general election.
The uncomfortable truth is that traditional checks on presidential power are failing. Should the midterms see Democrats win the House, or the Senate, or both, the guardrails they can place on the Trump administration are limited: he has even already sidelined the Trump-friendly, Republican-controlled Congress.
If faced with Democratic majorities in Congress, Trump will flaunt his power and openly disregard their attempts at oversight and constraint. No Republican will dare cross the aisle, prioritising personal preservation over congressional duty.
The lesson: constraining Trump has only worked when Republicans are willing to break with him. Now Trump has systematically removed this internal opposition. Democrats will try to rein him in, but, because Trump maintains unilateral control of the Republican Party, they will be unsuccessful.
Massie’s defeat is the latest notch in Trump’s endorsement belt. This cycle, Trump has used his support to punish those he views as standing in his way.
Louisiana senator Bill Cassidy, despite paying lip service to repair the relationship, voted for Trump’s impeachment after the January 6th riots. A Trump-backed candidate won Cassidy’s race; he finished third, with only 25% of the vote. In December, Trump also pressured Indiana state representatives to pass a mid-decade gerrymandered redistricting bill. Five of the seven Republicans who opposed him lost their primaries.
Massie’s loss combined with Trump’s endorsement of the embattled Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate primary marks the era of Trump, unconstrained. As the Republican Party moves further to the right there will surely be general election losses. Trump does not care. He will continue to hold the party in a vice-like grip, moving to depose his detractors. That power is much more important to him than who controls Congress.
Without intra-party opposition, Trump will be increasingly emboldened to act on his wildest whims at home and abroad. This could be anything from building the “Arc de Trump” to invading Cuba. He will force Republicans to support even his most unpopular positions. They will call him a genius, applaud his wars and welcome him to their districts. If they want to keep their jobs, they have no other choice.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.
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