As midterms near, poll finds one in five Hispanic voters in Florida rethinking support for Trump – Sun Sentinel
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Hispanic voters, who have been a pillar of support in Florida for President Donald Trump and the state’s Republicans, don’t approve of his performance in office. And that poll finding could have implications for the November midterm elections.
One in five Hispanic voters in Florida who voted for Trump in 2024 told pollsters that if they could get a redo, they definitely or probably wouldn’t vote for him again. Nationally even more Hispanic voters, one in four, feel that way.
Disenchantment with Trump among Hispanic voters in Florida, the recent poll found, is driven by the issue that is affecting all kinds of voters everywhere in the country: the cost of living and what they see as an inadequate or nonexistent response from Washington, D.C.
Still, the survey conducted by a bipartisan polling team for the organization UnidosUS, doesn’t necessarily portend disaster for Florida Republicans in November. Republican candidates for the top jobs on the ballot led their likely Democratic challengers in the poll, which was completed and released in May.
A slight majority of Florida Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump’s performance, but his favorability in the state is significantly higher than among Hispanic voters nationwide.
In Florida, 44% of Hispanic voters approved of Trump’s performance, with 51% disapproving, giving him a net approval rating of negative seven percentage points among Florida Hispanic voters.
Nationally, 30% of Hispanic voters approved of Trump’s performance, with 67% disapproving for a net negative approval rating of 37 points.
Men were more likely to approve of Trump’s performance than women, something pollster Daron Shaw said in an online poll briefing represents a “significant gender gap.”
Among Florida Hispanic men, Trump’s approval is a net positive of three percentage points; among women, he is at a net negative of 18 percentage points.
Among Hispanic men nationally, Trump’s approval is a net negative of 30 points; among women his net negative is 44 points.
Republicans (83% in Florida; 75% nationally) are the only segment of Hispanic voters who approve of Trump’s performance.
Pocketbook issues were top of mind. The driving force, pollster Gary Segura said, is “the economy, the economy, the economy.”
Though Florida Hispanic voters were much more supportive of Trump and Republicans than voters nationally, their views were much more in sync on some economic issues.
The poll found just 16% of Hispanic voters in Florida say they live comfortably, with 66% saying they are meeting their expenses and 15% saying they are having trouble meeting expenses.
The view nationally was essentially the same: 15% say they live comfortably, with 63% reporting they are meeting expenses, and 19% reporting they have trouble meeting expenses.
Cost of living was cited by 57% of Florida Hispanic voters as their top priority. Nationally it was cited by 60%.
Views diverge, and more partisan feelings emerge, when an economic question includes Trump’s name.
The poll reported that 38% of Florida Hispanic voters believe Trump’s economic policies will leave them worse off over the next 12 months and 31% believe his economic policies would make them better off.
Nationally, views are much more negative, with 52% saying his economic policies will leave them worse off over the next 12 months, compared to 21% who said they’d be better off.
“That’s an unprecedented level of pessimism from a group of people who have historically shown very optimistic reactions about the near and long term futures in public opinion polling,” Segura said.
Shaw, too, said it was significant. “This has historically an optimistic electorate. Latinos have a higher degree of hope for the future than almost every other demographic group…. These numbers are daunting.”
Deborah Fleischaker, UnidosUS senior advisor for immigration policy and strategy, said in a statement that the poll clearly shows “immigration is a priority of Hispanic voters.”
The numbers were similar nationally and in Florida.
The survey, conducted 15 months after Trump began his second term immigration crackdown, found 40% of Florida Hispanic voters and 44% nationally said they or people in their communities fear immigration authorities will harass or arrest them even if they are U.S. citizens or legal residents.
The question didn’t use Trump’s name, instead referring to a more neutral phrasing, “Thinking of recent immigration policies and actions.”
Other findings:
— 24% of Florida Hispanic voters and 29% nationally reported children are missing school because parents are afraid of being arrested during school drop-off and pick ups.
— 31% of Hispanic voters in Florida and nationally said current immigration policy means “people are more afraid to report crimes or interact with the police.”
— 28% of Florida Hispanic voters and 30% nationally said U.S. immigration actions are hurting the local economy.
One of Trump’s most controversial policies — attempting to undo what has for generations been seen as a constitutional guarantee that people born in the U.S. are all automatically citizens — is strongly opposed by Hispanic voters. The issue is one of the biggest remaining cases in the U.S. Supreme Court’s current term, with a decision expected by the end of June.
The poll asked about the “Executive Order declaring children of undocumented
immigrants born in the U.S. are not U.S. citizens” without mentioning Trump’s name.
Nationally, 23% said they were in support and 70% opposed, including 58% strongly opposed.
In Florida, 31% said they were in support and 60% opposed, including 46% strongly opposed.
The poll found 68% of Hispanic voters nationally and 54% in Florida said the country is headed in the wrong direction. Nationally, 25% of Hispanic voters thought the country was headed in the right direction; 37% in Florida felt that way.
A poor right track-wrong track trend can prove problematic in the next election for the party that controls the White House.
Segura said the numbers are “a little bit better in Florida,” describing the result as “a straight-out reflection of the economy.”
Large shares of respondents plan to show up at the polls in November — 76% nationally and in Florida.
Florida is a relatively bright spot for Republicans.
“The competitive environment is better for Republicans here, because they’re basically fighting to a draw on inflation,” Shaw said in a different video briefing. “On issues where they’re extremely vulnerable nationally they’re fighting to a draw in Florida. Now that’s not good, given the underlying party structure in Florida, but at least they’re not getting wiped out like they are in other places.”
And that helps give Florida Republican candidates an advantage among Hispanic voters, though Shaw said “it’s sort of at the lower end of what one might expect given recent voting patterns.”
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for governor, was the choice of 40%, to 33% for former U.S. Rep. David Jolly, a Democratic candidate.
Ashley Moody, the state’s appointed U.S. senator, was the choice of 40% of Florida Hispanic voters. Democrat Alex Vindman was the choice of 33%. If Democrat Angie Nixon wins the Aug. 18 primary, the poll found she had support of 32%.
On the overall congressional ballot, Republicans have a slight edge among Florida Hispanic voters, with 42% saying they’d vote for a Republican for Congress and 38% for a Democrat. That is plus four percentage points for Republicans.
“These numbers are not good for Republicans, a four-point advantage,” Shaw said. “That four-point spread is not what you’re seeing in the Senate or even in the gov race. It’s much better for the Democrats. If you’re looking at clues with respect to that undecided vote, your expectation is that it’s probably going to lean Democratic.”
Nationally, 27% of Hispanic voters said they’d vote for a Republican for Congress and 54% for a Democrat. That is plus 27 points for the Democrats.
In Florida, 44% said they see the Democratic Party caring “a great deal” about the Hispanic community, 47% said it doesn’t “care too much,” and 8% said Democrats as “being hostile” toward the community. (Only 13% of Republicans saw Democrats as hostile.)
In Florida, 39% said they see the Republican Party caring “a great deal” about the Hispanic community, 36% said it doesn’t “care too much,” and 25% regard Republicans as hostile. (The perception of Republican hostility was driven by 44% of Democrats and 39% independents who held that view.)
Nationally, 24% of Hispanic voters in late April and early May said they support the U.S. military action in Iran. In Florida, support stood at 38%.
The prospect of a different kind of U.S. military intervention — in Cuba — is seen differently among Florida Hispanic voters than nationally.
Among Florida Hispanic voters, 44% support and 39% oppose military intervention in Cuba, a result Shaw described as “quite distinct from the national numbers.”
Nationally, 24% of Hispanic voters support and 57% oppose military intervention in Cuba.
The poll surveyed 500 registered Hispanic voters in Florida and 3,000 nationwide between April 27 and May 14 using live phone calls, text invitations, and online panels in both English and Spanish. It was released May 27.
The survey was conducted by Segura’s firm, BSP Research, whose founders have progressive affiliations and have worked for Democrats, and Shaw’s firm, Shaw & Co. Research, a Republican polling firm. The sponsor, UnidosUS, is a nonprofit Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization. Its political arm, UnidosUS Action Fund, is a left-leaning organization.
The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points for the Florida survey and plus or minus 2 percentage points for the nationwide survey. However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans and Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Political writer Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
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