Brazil: A 2026 Snapshot – Americas Quarterly
This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on the Trump Doctrine
Lula is seeking a fourth term in the October 4 general election, and while a clear opposition frontrunner has not yet emerged, potential candidates include São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and former President Jair Bolsonaro’s son Flávio. Crime and violence will likely be top campaign issues following the police operation targeting the Comando Vermelho criminal group in Rio de Janeiro last October that left more than 120 people dead. Relations with the U.S. remain in flux: Trump imposed a 50% tariff in July, citing former President Bolsonaro’s trial for an attempted coup, prompting a strong stance from Lula that boosted the Brazilian leader’s approval. By November, Trump lifted significant tariffs on Brazilian food products, noting “initial progress” in trade talks. In January, Lula posted on social media that U.S. actions in Venezuela “cross an unacceptable line.” The World Bank recently highlighted Brazil’s progress in reducing poverty but noted that amid high and rising debt, fiscal sustainability remains a challenge.
NOTES: Poverty line is $8.30 per day in 2021 PPP. Percentages rounded to nearest decimal point.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: Quaest (Dec. 2025); GDP growth: IMF (Jan. 2026); Inflation, fiscal balance, population, unemployment: IMF (Oct. 2025); Share of total export value: International Trade Centre; Poverty rate: World Bank (Oct. 2025); Informal employment rate: ILO; Secondary education completion rate: IDB.
Click here to access a comparative data table.
Reading Time: 2 minutesSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
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