Montanans weigh in on Trump, Iran, affordability and congressional candidates – Montana Free Press
Montana Free Press
Montana's independent nonprofit news source.
Over the past two weeks, Montana Free Press has published a series of stories examining the results of the new Montana Free Press-Eagleton poll. The poll explored voter attitudes on national politics, immigration, affordability, elected officials and several emerging 2026 races. This roundup highlights key findings from the poll and includes links to MTFP’s full poll coverage.
The MTFP–Eagleton poll surveyed 815 Montana registered voters who were invited by text message to complete an online survey. Data was collected from April 29, 2026, to May 7, 2026.
Participants were recruited using a probability-based method, meaning they were randomly drawn from the state’s registered voter file, so every voter had a known chance of being invited. The results were weighted during analysis to reflect the demographics of Montana’s registered voters. The survey’s overall margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. You can find more about the methodology here.
Montanans’ views on military action against Iran and President Donald Trump are deeply divided by political party, with Republicans overwhelmingly approving military action in Iran. Among Republicans in the state, Trump’s approval rating is 91%, compared to 33% among independents and 0% among Democrats. Among all Montanans, the president’s approval rating is significantly higher than the national average.
In the race for Senate, more than 40% of poll respondents were unfamiliar with the highest-profile candidates, Republican Kurt Alme and independent Seth Bodnar, and a majority of voters couldn’t identify the race’s four Democrats, either.
In Montana’s Western District U.S. House primary, 32% of poll respondents said they viewed Democrat Ryan Busse favorably, and 27% said they viewed Republican Christi Jacobsen favorably — the highest ratings among the parties’ respective fields. Among Democrats, 75% said they had a favorable impression of Busse, 55% of Sam Forstag, 47% of Russell Cleveland and 24% of Matt Rains. Among Republicans, Jacobsen had a 41% favorability rating, while Aaron Flint had a 40% rating and Al ‘Doc’ Olszewski had a 29% rating.
U.S. Rep. Troy Downing, who won Montana’s Eastern Congressional District by a wide margin in 2024, has a 34% approval and a 40% disapproval rating among the district’s registered voters. About 2 in 3 voters polled in the district said they did not know Brian Miller or Sam Lux, two of the three Democrats currently competing in a 3-way primary for the chance to challenge Downing. The poll did not include questions about the third candidate in the Democratic primary, state Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy, D-Box Elder, who had suspended his campaign before Eagleton fielded the survey. Windy Boy restarted his campaign in early May.
According to the poll, 47% of Montanans disapprove of Gov. Greg Gianforte’s job performance, while 44% approve and 9% said they did not know. Income ranges are also closely linked to views on Gianforte’s job performance. Of those making under $50,000 per year, roughly one-third approve of his job performance, a proportion that increased as income ranges rose.
Roughly two-thirds of respondents said they have voted for candidates of multiple political parties on the same ballot in the past, but nearly the same proportion — 63% — said they are currently unlikely to vote for a candidate from a different political party than the one they usually support.
Roughly 62% of respondents reported they had some difficulty affording healthcare and medical costs, with respondents ages 45 to 64 reporting the most difficulty. About 61% of respondents also reported some level of difficulty affording gas or other transportation costs, a notable spike from last winter. When asked the same question in a previous Montana Free Press-Eagleton poll, conducted in late December and early January, just 34% of respondents reported any difficulty.
Most Montanans, 59% of respondents, say they at least mostly support local law enforcement working with agencies like Border Patrol and ICE. A plurality of respondents also said they strongly approve of President Trump’s approach to immigration.
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