Is Iran war raising odds of Trump impeachment? See Trump approval rating – PhillyBurbs
President Donald Trump has heard increasing calls for his impeachment from his critics over the ongoing involvement in the Middle East.
President Trump was impeached twice during his first term, later to be acquitted in the Senate both times.
While a third impeachment would likely face significant political barriers in the current Republican-controlled House and Senate, the 2026 midterm elections could change that with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats on the ballot in November.
Calls for another Donald Trump impeachment are rising amid the midterm campaigning, the Iran war and low presidential approval ratings.
Here’s what to know about the odds of impeachment in 2026, midterms and poll numbers.
Christian Menefee, is one of multiple Democratic candidates who are running on promises to impeach the president, such as Illinois candidates Mayor Daniel K. Biss, state Sen. Laura Fine, or Kat Abughazaleh, who are calling for articles of impeachment over the war in Iran.
President Donald Trump is not currently being impeached, despite mounting calls by Democratic lawmakers and Trump opponents.
Impeachment requires a majority vote in the House to approve charges against a government official for treason, bribery or other serious abuse of power or misconduct, and then a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict and remove the official from office.
A third impeachment would likely face significant political barriers due to the current Republican-controlled House and Senate at this time.
However, a Democratic win in the House in this year’s midterms elections, would give them control of one of the congressional branches in government and make it harder for Trump to pass his agenda, result in a likely push back on Republican cuts in social spending or requiring more deals when it comes time to raise the debt ceiling, or pushing for impeachment.
According to Polymarket, betting odds show a 14% chance that Trump will be impeached by end of 2026. Meanwhile Kalshi betting odds show a 3% chance he’ll be impeached by Jun. 1, 2026; 14% chance by Jan. 1, 2027 and 71% chance by Jan. 1, 2028.
Trump’s presidential approval rating today is 42.9% versus 54.4% that disapprove, according to RealClearPolling. It declined from an initial high of 50.5% approval and 44.3% disapproval rating when he took office in January 2025, and nearing his recent all-time lows around Feb. 17, 2026, hitting 42% approval and 55.5% disapproval. Trump’s first term average approval numbers were 42.8% and former President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating was 43.2%.
The midterm elections are Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.
According to the latest RealClearPolling‘ generic Congressional voting polls, 47.8% said they’d vote Democrat, 43.1% said they’d vote Republican.
In the Polymarket betting odds on who will win the 2026 midterms, 35% favor a Republican win for the Senate and Democratic win for the House. Currently, the Republican party controls both the Senate and the House.
Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers reflect polling and odds as of 12:30 p.m. Friday, March 13, 2026.
Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team
