Trump’s Iran calculus on collision course with Israeli expectations of renewed war – Jewish Insider
With gas prices rising and the midterms approaching, the White House has little appetite for prolonged conflict
Win McNamee/Getty Images
President Donald Trump (L) greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he arrives at the White House on September 29, 2025 in Washington, DC.
In Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, Netanya and Beersheva, the conversations are the same: When will the war with Iran resume? What contingency plans are in place? Do we need to temporarily rent an apartment with a shelter?
All over Israel, there is a looming feeling that the next round of fighting is just around the corner. The Israel Democracy Institute’s latest polling, conducted earlier this month, found that 62% of Israelis think that the war’s renewal is likely.
But in the U.S., a resumption of war appears increasingly unlikely. With gas prices rising and the midterms approaching, the White House has little appetite for prolonged conflict. A New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this week found that nearly two-thirds of Americans think that going to war against Iran in the first place was a bad idea. Though fresh off a series of primary and state-level wins, President Donald Trump appears cognizant of the uphill battle that comes with resuming an unpopular war, even as he told reporters earlier this week he didn’t factor “Americans’ financial situation” in his approach to the war.
There is also a question of funding. Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), the chair of the House Appropriations Committee, said this week that the Pentagon would “probably” be out of money to fund the Iran war by August.
Those are key factors that have not penetrated the discourse in Israel. Across the U.S., gas prices are sky high. The midterms are less than six months away. And on Capitol Hill, even some of the president’s staunchest backers are signaling opposition to a resumption of the war.
“Generally speaking, Israelis are not really attuned to internal politics in the U.S. that could be affecting President Trump’s decisions,” Tamar Hermann, director of IDI’s Viterbi Center for Public Opinion, told Jewish Insider this morning. “Recent coverage in the Israeli media has tended to obscure the domestic political constraints Trump faces, creating the impression that he is operating without meaningful checks and is effectively able to do as he pleases.”
While legislatively, the Trump administration has demonstrated that it is willing — to some extent — to circumvent Congress and somewhat shuffle the system of checks and balances, the real factors constraining the president are the ones facing elected leaders around the world.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke Tuesday night, in what Axios reported was a “difficult” call in which the two leaders diverged on how to proceed, with the president favoring negotiations and a potential deal and Netanyahu pushing for renewed active military operations in order to further degrade Tehran’s capabilities.
In recent days, both Jerusalem and Washington have acknowledged that Trump is the ultimate decision-maker on Iran. Trump told reporters on Wednesday morning that Netanyahu “will do whatever I want him to do” when it comes to the Islamic Republic, while earlier this week, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that Israel is the “junior partner” to the U.S. vis-a-vis Iran.
But in the next six months, both men will face the court of public opinion in their countries’ respective elections, likely to be just weeks apart. One believes that a resumption of the war could boost his chances of staying in power. The other is cognizant that going back to battle could cost him the wins he’s amassed. And for now, Trump holds the cards.
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