Trump’s Approval Falls to 35 Percent, Threatening GOP in 2026 Midterms – mezha.net
Approval has dropped steadily since his return to office, driven by tariffs the Iran war and domestic missteps. This shift could reshape the 2026 midterms.
Based on data from CNN
President Donald Trump now appears more unpopular than at any time before, even after the Capitol riot of January 6, 2021.
In fact, the average approval rating, at 35% according to CNN Polls of Polls, means he is approaching the territory of George W. Bush – the only president after Jimmy Carter who spent a long stretch in the 30s or below.
All this puts the Republican Party at risk of serious voter rebuke as soon as six months out from the 2026 midterm elections.
So how did we get here?
It’s been happening gradually, over more than 15 months since Trump returned to office. But a few dynamics stand out in particular.
The first instance of a significant drop in support occurred almost immediately.
Trump entered office with the highest ratings ever recorded; some polls even logged support above 50% at the end of January 2025, but his “honeymoon” quickly ended, and he lost a few points.
Pinpointing the exact cause of the rapid decline is difficult. The early days after the return were a steady stream of one-sided moves. Two plausible factors were the unpopular pardons of almost all those charged in connection with January 6, even those who beat police officers, and chaotic downsizing at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the leadership of the very unpopular Elon Musk.
The next significant turn came in early April, when Trump decisively intensified tariff policy. His declaration of a “Day of Liberation” on April 2 effectively signaled a trade war with much of the global community. (This year the Supreme Court struck down many of these tariffs.)
Americans who had previously shown interest in tariffs quickly shifted their position. And the average approval rating fell from 45% at the time of the tariffs’ announcement to 41% a month later.
The next six months were relatively stable, despite the Republican-led Congress passing a very unpopular bill advancing Trump’s program and missteps in the Epstein case by the Department of Justice. However the situation eased again, and Democrats won the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia by large margins.
The next point of concern came in January, when Trump’s aggressive immigration campaign ended with federal agents shooting Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis. The administration quickly hinted that the culprits were Good and Pretti and even homegrown terrorists. But Americans largely disagreed.
Trump’s approval rating did not fall significantly, but this was partly because his administration abruptly backed away from the most aggressive tactics and changed leadership.
And now the central issue: the war with Iran, about which Friday polling showed that 61% of Americans called it a “mistake.”
Again, the overall level has not fallen sharply: it declined from an average of 38% at the start of the war in February to 35% today. Yet the Iran war has left a mark on his numbers: many people who previously supported him changed their stance, and economic indicators also declined.
Sixty-four percent of people who currently do not support Trump, according to CNN Polls of Polls, exceed the level seen in most single polls from his first term.
Besides these key moments, a few other factors are worth mentioning.
First – arrogance. He governed as if he held a sweeping mandate, which he did not actually win, gaining not an absolute majority but a share of the votes.
He pursued policies that could be popular – such as strengthening deportations – but at the same time moved in a direction Americans perceived as “too far,” as in Minneapolis’ crackdown. And perhaps most importantly, he took responsibility for nearly everything, acting unilateral.
The economy was unstable, prices were high, but Trump chose to bet on global tariffs and now on Iran’s war – things Americans associate with prolonged economic discontent.
Second – the impact on the cost of living. Tariffs took a toll, but the Iran war really hit the pocketbook. Gas prices rose above $4 a gallon, coinciding with a record drop in CNN’s economic approval: 31%. And worse cost-of-living indicators fell even further – over 70% of respondents do not support him on this issue.
Third – misaligned priorities. Not only do Americans disapprove of what he did regarding living costs, but they also feel that issue remains neglected.
A March CNN poll showed 65% of Americans think Trump has not done enough to lower prices, and CBS News–YouGov showed that three-quarters believe he has not focused enough on prices.
When Trump talks about the economy, he often comes across as dull. He continues to pursue a series of foreign policy military engagements, the public’s interest in which is waning.
A March CNN poll showed that 67% of Americans believe that Trump does not pay enough attention to the country’s most important problems.
Fourth – a decline in trust in his competence and ability to lead the country. In his first term the economy seemed stable, but now many doubt his ability to make the right decisions on the international stage.
Pew Research Center surveys show a sharp decline in trust in his ability to understand and conduct foreign policy. A new study also indicates that more than 60% of Americans do not trust his ability to lead the executive branch, properly apply military tools, or effectively work with Congress.
There is also growing concern about his psychological resilience after a string of public missteps. One of the latest polls showed that 61% of Americans and 30% of Republican respondents agree with the statement that Trump “is becoming unstable with age.”
Midterm elections are often viewed as a referendum on the president. Not always 100%, but usually the less popular the president, the worse the results for his party.
Some of the worst midterms in modern history occurred when presidents had ratings below 50%: Truman in 1946, Johnson in 1966, Reagan in 1982, Clinton in 1994, Bush in 2006, Obama in 2010, and Trump in 2018.
On the other hand, presidents with support around 60% or higher typically lose fewer than ten seats or even gain ground. A well-known exception was 2022, when Joe Biden was unpopular, but the elections were fairly tight – tied to the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision and Democrats’ ability to position themselves against Trump.
In conclusion, historically low support for Trump underscores how much the economy and foreign policy shape midterm results and how the public evaluates the president.
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