Donald Trump’s Evangelical Base May Be Cracking – Newsweek
Published
Jun 12, 2026 at 11:09 AM EDT
Weekend Staff Writer
President Donald Trump’s approval rating with evangelical voters, a critical voting bloc for the Republican Party, is slipping, according to a new poll.
The poll suggests support for Trump among his evangelical base is cracking ahead of the 2026 midterms, when Democrats hope to win control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. White evangelical or born-again Christians were essential to his 2024 election, as he won the group with 82 percent support, according to CNN exit polling. A fracture in that base could be a major red flag for Republicans’ prospects in this year’s elections.
Trump’s approval rating among evangelical voters fell to 52 percent in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed 4,531 adults nationwide from June 3-8, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. That marks a downward trajectory from August 2025, when his approval rating among evangelical Americans was 61 percent, according to the poll.
Across all Americans, Trump’s approval rating was 35 percent. His approval has tumbled amid economic concerns around the cost of living and higher gas prices following the Iran war, which began at the end of February and has not polled well among Americans.
Fifty-four percent of evangelical respondents said they do not believe Trump’s use of the military in Iran is “in line with their understanding of Christianity,” compared to 41 percent who said it was.
Jacob Neiheisel, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek that the question, as posed, “can admit of multiple interpretations” and that some evangelicals may want to see more aggressive involvement.
“It is possible that a non-trivial number of evangelicals want the administration to prosecute the war in Iran even more aggressively,” he said.
The polling is unsurprising, as even “the most dedicated supporters can eventually turn away from their standard-bearer if the conditions are right,” he said. He also noted that Black evangelical Americans have “very different political attitudes” from white evangelical voters.
Additionally, 51 percent said the administration’s hardline immigration approach was not in line with their religious values.
White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Newsweek that Trump has been a strong president for Christians.
“There has never been a greater president for Christian Americans than President Trump, and his strong record proves it: he has ended the weaponization of the federal government against people of faith, proudly defended and expanded religious rights, pardoned pro-life activists, stopped the chemical mutilation of our nation’s children, and protected parents’ rights,” Rogers said.
Evangelical voters have been critical to the Trump coalition in each of his three election campaigns. He won 82 percent of them in 2024, 76 percent in 2020 and 80 percent in 2016, according to CNN’s exit polling data.
His conservative approach to cultural issues like abortion has been key to that support. Notably, he appointed three conservative justices to the Supreme Court who were instrumental in overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark case that for decades guaranteed reproductive rights nationwide, delivering a major victory to conservative evangelicals who oppose abortion.
Still, his relationship with the voting bloc has been tense at times, as his positions on some of these social issues, like LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, have at times been less rigid than those of other conservatives.
Nancy Ammerman, professor of sociology at Boston University, told Newsweek that links between evangelical Americans and Republican voting “run very deep.”
“They have taken hold in the culture of churches so that no one has to say anything to know that the proper way to vote is to vote for Trump and the people he supports,” she said. “Even those who don’t go to church very often, but identify as evangelical, see that religious identity as tied to their political position.”
Evangelicals have been moving closer to the Republican Party since the late 1970s, Neiheisel said.
Some evangelicals have become tired of “supporting Republican candidates who promise them victories in exchange for their support and then don’t actually deliver,” and are now looking for candidates who offer a more “pugilistic approach to going after their perceived enemies,” he said.
“Evangelicals used to maintain that personal morality was a key reason to support one candidate over the other. Now, they use things like the biblical story of Cyrus to maintain that God can use imperfect vehicles (such as Trump) to more perfect spiritual ends,” he said.
Neiheisel said the main concern for Republicans from this polling could be turnout.
“Evangelicals aren’t going to desert the Republican Party en masse in the midterms. The question is about whether they will show up in the requisite numbers to forestall electoral consequences,” he said.
Democrats are hopeful that splinters in Trump’s base will benefit their candidates in the midterms. Typically, midterms are viewed as a referendum on the sitting president, and the party in the White House usually loses seats. Polling suggests Democrats are in an increasingly strong position as Trump’s approval slips nationwide.
Recent polling suggests Trump’s national approval rating has struggled.
An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,200 likely voters from June 7-8, showed that 55 percent of Americans disapprove of him, while 39 percent approve. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
A survey from YouGov and The Economist found that 60 percent disapprove of him, compared to 35 percent who gave him positive marks. It surveyed 1,568 registered voters from June 5-8. Meanwhile, a Marquette University poll found that 62 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump, compared to 38 percent who approve. It surveyed 1,001 adults nationwide from May 20-26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
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